Big wins forecast for Queensland
A massive jump in house prices is forecast for Brisbane over the coming three years, almost double the nearest Australian state capital, with major Queensland cities close behind.
Latest analysis by BIS Oxford Economics has forecast a massive 20 per cent growth in house prices in Brisbane, with demand driven by its relative affordability compared to other capitals and a pick-up in positivity.
Its Residential Property Prospects 2019—2022 has the city’s median house price growing at almost double the speed of the nearest growth capitals Adelaide (11 per cent) and Canberra (10 per cent). In contrast, prices in Sydney (6 per cent) and Melbourne) were set to remain in single digits in terms of percentage growth over the three years.
This as the latest Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook, out Monday, predicted Queensland would be among the biggest beneficiaries of a major shift in the economy, with stimulus coming out of rising coal prices pushed by Chinese demand, expectations that farmers have a better season coming up, and rising housing demand driven by interstate migration.
BIS Oxford Economics associate director Angie Zigomanis expected Brisbane to be a big winner by the end of 2022, bucking the slow recovering coming out of southern markets.
“The next 12 months we still expect (house price growth) to be fairly weak in Brisbane but moving into 2020 is when it will pick up,” he told The Courier-Mail.
He said Brisbane was shaking off factors that had kept it down including a lack of employment and income growth, plus a big upturn in housing supply particularly in the apartment market.
Deloitte Access Economics partner, Chris Richardson, said Queensland was perfectly positioned to make the most of coming stimulus both nationally and internationally.
“There is more stimulus coming than people realise,” he told The Courier-Mail.
“This is the first time ever that the Reserve Bank is cutting interest rates rapidly, not because the economy is softer, but mainly because it’s changed its mind about what unemployment rate is required to get wages moving faster.
“Because of that change of mind out of RBA, Queensland is getting a stimulus pretty much from everywhere. The world has given Australia a payrise, and coal is very central to what’s happening. It’s not just more money flowing into Australia but also renewed interest in building coal mines in the Galilee Basin.”
“As well, Queensland also gets the full force of national stimulus around interest rates and exchange rates. The drought has ben pretty nasty in Queensland, but broadly we wouldn’t expect the coming farm season to be as awful as the last one.
“Think of that combination and think of Queensland’s economy — there’s farmers and miners getting benefit with the drought less nasty, China pumping out stimulus and then there’s mums and dads with government stimulus and interest rate combinations.”
He said when house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, the past trend was that Brisbane would follow.
“Eventually you get faster population growth in Queensland, and that’s exactly what happening at the moment. It took longer than it usually does but that is very much the story of the moment.” Source: realestate.com.au